Despite all their all diligence, this is exactly what happened in 1975. After Vietnam fell, so did Cambodia and Laos.

According to the official version, the war in the Chechen Republic began as a response to an attack on Dagestan. Those who challenge Chechen policy are “beaten on the muzzle” with this argument. Vladimir Putin explains the invasion of the Chechen Republic as follows: “The aggression had begun. All the Caucasus would depart … Dagestan, Ingushetia.”

After four years, military reports from Dagestan and Ingushetia surprise no one. It seems the Chechen Resistance, almost crushed and exhausted in the mountains, is suddenly pulling out of the Chechen Republic into Caucasian open spaces, some to the west, some to the east. The threat of a Caucasian withdrawal from Russia is more real than ever before. It is obvious that the leadership of Ichkeria was not only able to maintain centralized management of Ichkeria, but also to find support among other Caucasian peoples. In republics where the separatist mood has not been observed before, youth act under the most radical slogans. What has Maskhadov offered them that they follow the leader of the ruined Chechen Republic?

On Sunday evening, August 1st,, an interview was published with Maskhadov and influential field commander Abdul-Hakima (according to reports, his surname is Sadulaev and he comes it from Stari Atagi village.)

Maskhadov addresses a portion of the interview to the Caucasian peoples. He explains why insurgents have made raids in Ingushetia. Maskhadov speaks about “cleansings” and "abductions" carried out by federal forces in the republic. He then suggests what is possibly the main reason for the Ingush raids. “The Ingush had a president, and another has not yet been appointed by the FSB.” When the Chechen Republic declared independence in 1991, the Ingush, who where ethnically very close to Chechens, did not follow the lead of the Chechen Republic. In exchange for its loyalty the Ingush Republic received significant economic and political autonomy from Moscow. When the Ingush were deprived of these privileges, and, in addition, began to be abducted and killed, there was a logical connection to the armed struggle of their neighbors. Moscow has not solved the main Ingush problem – the region of Ossetia, from which the Ingush were expelled in 1992, and which remains a prohibited zone for them. The Ingush definitely hope for Chechen assistance on this question. In the most recent communication of the Ingush military council, the return of that region is identified as one of the purposes of the war declared against Russia.

Ingushetia has for some time been a base for insurgents, a resting place. But pressure on Chechen refugees, and their expulsion from Ingushetia, has removed the last obstacle to beginning military actions in the republic.

The transformation of the Ingush territory into a war zone, though a cause for concern, nevertheless cannot significantly change the situation. Dagestan is another matter altogether, concerning which the Ichkerian leadership has developed a special approach. The problem of this region is ethnic dissociation. Using it, the Russian government traditionally pursued a policy of differentiating national groups, while luring in their elite. As a result, the situation in Dagestan has become aggravated, and leaders are so corrupt that they have lost any authority over the people. In a republic where Islam always played an appreciable role, more and more people have begun to unite on religious grounds, instead of national attributes. Supporters of the Islamic idea believe that an Islamic political system in Dagestan will be viable.

The first to attempt this were inhabitants of Chabanmaxi and Karamaxi. As they were engaged in cargo transportation, they suffered from constant extortion by officials and the militia. They wanted to create a model society to deal effectively with corruption and the absolute power of clans. How this “project” was “shut down” is well known – the villages were literally erased from the face of the earth. All across Dagestan prosecutions of Islamites have begun. And the retaliatory machine does not differentiate between moderate and radical wings; between those who are ready to engage in dialogue, and those who want to be at war.

As a result, the opposition has turned for help to the Chechens, who have always wanted to see them as allies. In the published interview, commander Abdul-Hakim, appealing to religious feelings, called on Dagestanis to present a united front against Russia. “There are no separate peoples in Dagestan. There are Muslim nations in this part of the Caucasus. Peoples of the Northern Caucasus have been united from time immemorial and Russia has not divided us”.

Field commanders not only proclaim new ideas, they successfully carry out their policy in the Caucasus. Evidence of this are the hundreds, if not thousands, of inhabitants of Dagestan and Ingushetia, going to modjaheds. Neither local authorities, nor clergy are able to affect the youth. To appeals supported by citations from the Koran, the official clergy responds with interdictions from Islamic literature. The controlled and intimidated mass media say nothing about corruption and arbitrariness. And concepts such as free elections are replaced by the registration of pro-Kremlin candidates.

Moscow is capable of changing the situation, but they think exclusively in terms of divisions and battalions. Vladimir Putin has never hidden with whom he discusses Caucasian-Chechen policy-the leadership of Ministry of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB. Where his advisers have gotten the president is obvious. Like dominos, the Caucasian Republics are falling into the embrace of war, and the youth of the Northern Caucasus are guided by the Chechen Republic, not Russia.